A year of "those days".
There are years in which nothing happens…
…and there are days into which a whole lifetime is compressed.1
2025 was a year of those days.
Shortly after inauguration, President Trump started burning through Sharpies to enact more Executive Orders than any President since Franklin Roosevelt. The substance of those orders ranged from banal and feckless2 to heavily-politicized and likely unconstitutional,3 but the magnitude of actions from the Executive Branch has led to unrest within the United States and uncertainty of America’s role abroad. We will return to this theme shortly, but the level of activity from the White House set the tone for sweeping change both within and beyond the U.S.
The 2025 Tax Bill
The (absurdly titled) “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” enacted by Congress on July 4 included notable changes to the U.S. Tax Code, particularly regarding the federal gift and estate tax. Under the 2017 Tax Act, the lifetime gift and estate tax exclusion was set at $10,000,000 per taxpayer. That value would adjust annually for inflation, but the law was temporary; it was set to expire automatically at the end of 2025. Left unattended, the tax law would have sunset and the exclusion would have been automatically reduced to $5,000,000 per taxpayer (plus adjustment for inflation).
The new 2025 law triples the gift & estate tax exclusion from $5,000,000 per taxpayer to $15,000,000 beginning in January 2026. The new law does not have a built-in sunset provision; barring later Congressional action, the new $15,000,000 exclusion amount is permanent. (To the extent anything in Washington is “permanent”.) The exclusion amount will again be adjusted annually for inflation, with the first adjustment likely effective January 2027.
The tax rate applied to gifts or estates above the exclusion amount remains the same at 40%. Thus, the U.S. federal gift and estate tax is very much alive and well for individuals with greater than $15,000,000 in total wealth and for married couples with more than $30,000,000. Fortunately, plenty of creative wealth strategies remain in place such that the estate tax is completely and legally avoidable.
Congress also tinkered with various income tax provisions, including raising the SALT (State and Local Tax exemption) cap and expanding benefits for investments in Qualified Opportunity Zones, especially in rural areas. These present potential income tax-oriented planning opportunities in 2026 and beyond. But the hand that gives also takes away; charitable contributions after January 2026 won’t be as fully deductible as gifts in prior years.
The key takeaway from the “One Big Beautiful Bill” is that as ever, tax policy remains a moving target we must keep an eye on.
A “Digital Asset-Friendly” Administration
The Bitcoin and crypto markets enjoyed lively action in 2025. Bitcoin, ETH, and many other digital assets saw all-time high valuations spurred in no small part to the actions of the Trump administration and vocal support by influential members of Congress.
Among President Trump’s January Executive Orders were actions perceived as very favorable to Bitcoin and to the broader digital asset/crypto market. These include orders expressing priorities for “Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology” and the “Establishment of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and United States Digital Asset Stockpile”, presumably to be developed as part of a broader priority in creating “A Plan for Establishing a United States Sovereign Wealth Fund”.
Congress has followed the White House’s lead. The GENIUS Act was signed into law in July and establishes a regulatory framework for dollar-based stablecoins used for payments.4 Several additional bills seeking to implement Bitcoin- or crypto-friendly legislation are pending for consideration in 2026, including the BITCOIN Act, which would require the federal government to begin acquiring bitcoin at scale.
These are part of a broader trend as…
The Overton Window Shifts toward Bitcoin
On January 1, 2025, bitcoin’s opening price was around $94,600.5 Almost 365 days later, after oscillating to an all-time-high above $126,000 and then dropping back to tickle $80,000 at Thanksgiving, bitcoin is pretty much back to where it started the year. I won’t insult the reader with predictions of bitcoin’s price action in 2026 or whether a bear market is starting, is fully underway, or whether bitcoin’s historic four-year market cycle has changed.6
Bitcoin’s volatility in 2025 suggests a new era of price discovery driven in significant part by the sheer volume of new investors this year. The ETFs have made it much easier for retail investors to buy access to bitcoin’s price without the technical challenges of buying and custodying bitcoin in title-held strategies.7 By December 2025, over $120 billion has been invested in U.S.-based spot bitcoin ETFs since they went live Q2 2024. Easy access has attracted a new type of investor to bitcoin, perhaps not as ideological or market-hardened as long-term coin holders. Many long-term holders have taken 2025 as a year of opportunity to harvest gains, and new investors have gobbled up the supply, mainly via the ETFs.
Bitcoin ETF inflows continued at pace as new ETFs were rolled out for ETH and a few other cryptoassets. But the Overton Window8 appears to be shifting squarely in favor of Bitcoin (less so for crypto). Dozens of publicly-traded companies have followed Strategy’s lead in adding bitcoin to corporate treasuries, and institutions including Harvard University have made significant bitcoin ETF investments within their endowments.9 The consensus view about bitcoin’s role in an investment portfolio is shifting from Warren Buffett’s “rat poison squared” and Jamie Dimon’s infamous “pet rock” to a meaningful store of value and hedge against portfolio risk and currency debasement, more akin to gold.10
But all may not be rosy in the near-term. MSCI Inc., a global provider of equity indexes and benchmarking analytics, is presently considering delisting “Bitcoin Treasury Companies”.11 MSCI has solicited comment from the financial services industry as to whether companies with more than half of their balance sheet in bitcoin or crypto are “investment funds” rather than “operating businesses”. That change in classification would cause such companies to be removed from MSCI’s indexes.
If MSCI excludes MSTR, RIOT, MARA, and similar “crypto-treasury” firms from its indexes, it will trigger automated selling by MSCI-tracking index funds and ETFs. The outflows from MSTR and others would likely be in the billions of dollars in early 2026, likely putting downward pressure not only on the companies’ stock valuations but also on the price of bitcoin in the short term.
Market volatility and short term headwinds notwithstanding, the events of 2025 change nothing for bitcoin’s value proposition as a disintermediated medium of exchange and global, highly liquid store of value. We believe title-held bitcoin still belongs in a “Resilient Portfolio” perhaps now more than ever, along with physical gold and underappreciated equities both within and beyond the U.S. Increasingly, resilience may be found in non-dollarized equities of companies with robust moats, priced and yielding dividends in stronger currencies.
Bitcoin’s volatility will continue in this era of price discovery, and seismic movements remain possible. This warrants that we take a long view and provide guidance on market entry and exit points based on data rather than emotion.
Domestic Affairs
The U.S. has been quite a noisy house party (or domestic disturbance?) this year. Widespread deployment of Immigration & Customs Enforcement agents far from the border into (Democrat-led) U.S. cities is among the most widely-reported domestic intervention deployed by the administration this year. While ICE actions understandably drive many headlines, other actions from the executive branch may also have significant long-term effect.
This year has seen increased politicization of government functions whose independence has historically been preserved. President Trump criticized, scapegoated, and ultimately fired Dr. Erika McEntarfer, the director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, presumably because jobs data published by the BLS did not support the administration’s narrative on the U.S. labor market. More acutely, the administration continues to badger Federal Reserve Board chairman Jerome Powell to lower interest rates and inject liquidity into the economy, often resorting to public name calling and counterclaims of Powell’s own political bias. The BLS and Fed have historically enjoyed independence to allow decision making based on data, without distraction from purely partisan priorities.
Elon Musk and the Department of Governmental Efficiency (intentionally forming the tongue-in-cheek acronym “DOGE”, for Musk’s favorite useless memecoin) flamboyantly strutted about with chainsaws and claimed the ability to reduce the federal budget by $2 trillion per year. But after widescale government furloughs and layoffs–and emergency re-hires to backfill essential positions–DOGE has largely come and gone. Third-party reviews suggest actual savings might range from less than $200 million to as much as $19 billion–finding “government efficiency” improved by less than one percent under the most generous estimates.
And of course, the 2025 government shutdown was the longest in American history, eight days longer than the previous record–which occurred during the first Trump presidency.
For many, 2025 has felt like a year of lifetimes, and these are only a few highlights from within the U.S.
Geopolitical Reshuffling
The new administration, accommodated by a largely do-nothing Congress, has had as profound an impact abroad as it has within the U.S. From on again, off again, on again tariff tantrums, to shuttering USAID and feeble insertion into global military affairs, America has its allies and adversaries either reeling with uncertainty or emboldened and indifferent.
This year the U.S. inserted itself into conflicts between Israel and Gaza and between Israel and Lebanon with little meaningful effect. The war between Russia and Ukraine continues despite U.S.-led sanctions & uncommitted attempts to broker peace, although President Trump promised to end the conflict on “day one.”
Famine was officially declared in Sudan, and human suffering continues unabated in Gaza, parts of Ukraine, and in many other parts of the world without USAID or other U.S.-backed support. Iran-backed Houthis continue to interrupt global shipping in the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf, unmoved by U.S. attempts at intervention. Despite President Trump’s tariffs and tough talk, there are no signs of meaningful negotiations with China. Even as the U.S. military deploys missiles against suspected narcotraffickers off the coast of Venezuela (and with rumors of potential land invasion), Nicolas Maduro remains in control of the country and defiant. These present increasing evidence that the world no longer takes the U.S. seriously, let alone trusts it to keep its promises or fears its retribution.
We live in an age of incredible global volatility and human tragedy on a massive scale. These are still early days of a series of changes that are reshaping the world. It’s easy to get distracted or dismayed by media, proffering each new catastrophe as the end of the world. The reality is more nuanced and gradual, but global shuffling is unavoidable. The shift in geopolitical power also creates opportunity in new markets, opens new political relationships, and spurs global innovation to develop new life-changing technologies, cheaper paths to cleaner sources of energy, and other positive changes we will be talking about decades from now.
Responding strategically
2025 has been a year of rapid, seismic change. Uncertainty of America’s role domestically and abroad has contributed to decreasing confidence in the integrity of the U.S. Dollar. This reality calls for a strategic response.
2026 will be a year of continued focus on non-USD investment opportunities. We do not believe the U.S. markets are doomed, but America’s hegemony is fading. There will be surprising investment opportunities both within and outside the U.S., and these will guide our analysis in forming innovative and resilient portfolios for clients.
We are also in an age when thoughtful philanthropy is needed more than ever. As public safety nets get smaller, the opportunity for affluent families to make a meaningful difference in our communities and in the world becomes greater. For many families with generational wealth, this is already a central focus of their legacies. For others, perhaps the time is now to begin an intentional philanthropy journey.
Will 2026 be a year in which nothing happens? Not likely. On a metaphysical level, the world moves toward increasing entropy and disorder. It requires thoughtful, active intervention by individuals to push back against entropy to bring order and meaning to their families, to their communities, and to pursue intention in their role in the world.
A version of this quote is usually misattributed to Vladimir I. Lenin. The original source is actually the 1908 novel The Devil, by Adriaan Schade van Westrum.
As an example, consider “Ending Procurement and Forced Use of Paper Straws”, or “Maintaining Acceptable Water Pressure in Showerheads”.
Dubiously constitutional orders include declarations for “Prosecuting Burning of the American Flag”, “Protecting the American People Against Invasion” (by deploying ICE agents within U.S. cities far from the border), or targeting specific American companies as “threats” against the U.S., including Perkins Coie, Paul Weiss, Jenner & Block, WilmerHale, or Susman Godfrey.
The “Overton Window of Political Possibility” is a model first articulated by political scientist Joseph P. Overton to explain how changes in public policy occur. It’s generally described as the range of policy ideas and public positions that are considered politically acceptable at a given time, and it shifts as public opinion, events, and advocacy change what feels mainstream.
In November, Harvard announced the acquisition of nearly half a billion dollars’ worth of bitcoin exposure via IBIT. https://fortune.com/2025/11/17/harvard-owns-nearly-half-a-billion-dollars-worth-of-bitcoin/
A shiny pet rock? (Not investment advice.)